Sustainable Trends in the Roaring 2020's
The twenties are here and I’m thrilled to share my predictions on some of the most important sustainable innovations over the next decade.
Before diving into the future let’s take a look at the original Roaring Twenties:
Women couldn’t legally vote until August of 1920 when the 19th amendment was ratified. The League of Women Voters were instrumental in securing this right. Hard to believe this was only one hundred years ago!
In 1920 the US started to enforce the recent ban on alcohol because of the 18th amendment, known as the Volstead Act (1919). In retrospect this was a terrible idea as it limited people’s freedom and brought about a huge black market with violent gangs. (Sound familiar?) The upside is that Hollywood has produced some epic gangster movies set in that era.
The 1920 Olympics were held in Belgium with the theme of unity after the first World War. This was the first time the five interlocking rings were used on the Olympic flag. (Source: The People History)
The automobile was king in the 1920’s and reshaped society. In 1918 only one out of thirteen American families owned a vehicle. By 1929 four out of five families had one. (Source: World History)
I wonder what the world will look like a hundred years from now. I’m guessing that future people will probably think we were a bunch of barbarians.
Sustainable Innovations in the Roaring 20’s
I’m extremely optimistic about the next ten years. Below are five of my favorite sustainability trends that really have the potential to change the world.
These innovations represent massive business opportunities, solve some of humanities biggest problems and really do have the potential to make all of our lives collectively better.
These investment themes are largely represented in Impact Fiduciary’s managed portfolios.
Electrification of Transportation: Tesla sold close to 400,000 purely electric vehicles in 2019. Ford launched an all-electric Mustang. Every auto manufacturer now has an electric car in its pipeline.
It feels like the tide has shifted on EVs. I believe that within the next five years, most new cars being manufactured will be electric.
This is extremely important because the global transportation sector is responsible for about 15% of the world’s carbon footprint. In the US, it accounts for almost 30% of all of our greenhouse emissions.
I firmly believe from personal experience that once you go electric, you’ll never want to own a combustion engine again.
The upfront cost of electric is slightly higher, but the operating costs are much cheaper over time. Plus, EVs are fun to drive, especially if you like quick acceleration!
Plant-Based Diets and Cellular Agriculture: Beyond Meat had one of the most successful IPOs last year. The company offers plant-based burgers that taste delicious and have been gaining market share.
Its competitor, Impossible Foods, infiltrated Burger King with the tasty Impossible Whopper, and will probably have an IPO soon as well.
Plant-based diets are great for our collective health and the planet. The meat industry is one of the worst polluters in the world, and is liable for 14% of greenhouse gases emitted globally each year.
Eating less meat or going vegetarian is one of the best ways to fight climate change and be healthier!
According to the eye-opening Netflix documentary, The Game Changers, a vegan diet is also helping elite athletes perform even better. The strongest man in the world, pro football players and Olympians have gone vegan solely to improve their performance.
Cellular agriculture or lab-based meat (which is already available, but extremely expensive) will also play a major role. The technology behind it will improve over time bringing down the cost. This has the potential to completely upend the factory farms and big agg.
Memphis Meats is on the forefront of this disruption, and has already produced lab-based chicken, beef and duck that apparently tastes exactly the same as the natural thing without harming any animals.
Exponential Growth in Renewable Energy: The question of how fast alternative energy will gain market share over the next ten years largely depends on what happens this November when we elect our president and congress for the next four years.
It’s no secret that the current administration has tried to stack the deck in favor of the fossil fuel industry by gutting as much regulation as possible and ignoring all the external costs from fossil fuels, such as global warming, lung disease and polluted drinking water.
Every potential contender against Trump has a major environmental policy they would implement immediately. This could be a great tail wind for the green energy sector.
However, regardless of the outcome, the exponential growth of renewables will still propel market share, albeit at a slower pace than with an environmentally friendly government.
The world reached it’s first trillion watts of electricity generated by wind and solar in 2018. This took about forty years and the next trillion is expected to come online by 2023 while costing half as much as the first trillion.
Solar and wind technology paired with batteries are now more cost-effective than building new natural gas plants in most areas, and will only become more economically compelling over time.
Companies and utilities are rapidly shifting to solar and wind to power their operations. This is a huge trend that has gained speed over the past couple of years.
I’d love to say that these corporations are doing it to save the planet, but the reality is that it's mostly done for economic reasons. Hey, we’ll take the win!
Driverless Car Technology: Imagine ordering a Lyft, but not seeing anyone behind the wheel when it arrives.
Self-driving robo-taxis could have the most profound effect on how humans travel, and disrupt everything from employment to the insurance industry all the way to rethinking how cities are designed.
If robo-taxis are adopted they will most likely be fleets of electric cars and will massively increase the total number of electric miles driven. The operating costs would be minimal compared to hiring human drivers. The cost of transportation could decrease by 5x.
I believe that once this technology is ready for prime time, most people will eventually ditch driving altogether. This may not be mainstream yet, but companies and local governments are closer than most people think.
My take is that we will start to see this rolled out over the next couple of years with mass adoption happening in the mid and latter part of the 2020’s.
The consequences of this will be far-reaching. People living in cities will stop buying cars en masse, and traditional car manufacturers may need to change their business models or face bankruptcy.
Demand for gas will dry up causing oil prices to plummet. This could be the final arrow in the heart of the oil industry.
The potential disruption might be analogous to what Uber/Lyft did to the taxi industry over the past decade. I’m optimistic that my young daughters won’t need to learn how to drive a car. Fingers crossed!
Unfortunately, driverless cars and trucks would come with a major drawback. The transportation industry employs millions of people who may suddenly find themselves out of work.
However, this would be a small cost, as the safety improvement could save millions of lives across the world each year and literally rescue the planet from climate change destruction.
Battery Storage: Battery technology has been on a tear lately and shows no signs of stopping. According to CNBC, the cost of battery storage has dropped by over 85% in the last decade.
The wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine, so battery storage is absolutely key to the clean transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
Investment bank, UBS, has predicted that over the next decade energy storage costs could fall another 80% and the existing market could add over $400 billion of growth.
2020’s = Mind Blown!
Most of these trends started well before the 2020’s. I’m excited to see what other sustainable breakthroughs happen that we haven’t even imagined yet.
The good news is that there are a lot of smart people out there working everyday to solve some of humanities biggest problems.
I’m bullish on humanity!
Impact Fiduciary Commercial Break
Impact Fiduciary is proud to help investors vote with their wallets by supporting sustainable companies and industries that are trying to tackle major problems such as climate change.
Since founding the business, I’m happy to report that Impact Fiduciary has helped clients divest over $20 million in assets directly or indirectly from fossil-fuel-related companies.
If this sounds important to you and you’re looking for a rock solid financial plan, then I encourage you to reach out to learn more by scheduling a quick intro call.
Thank You
2019 was a great year for Impact Fiduciary. The best part of running my business is the exceptional people I get to meet who really care about the world and want to take control of their financial lives.
I’m very grateful to be able to serve such an amazing group of clients with a profound mission. Thank you all for your continued support!
Disclaimer: This article is provided for general information and illustration purposes only. Nothing contained in the material constitutes tax advice, a recommendation for purchase or sale of any security, or investment advisory services. I encourage you to consult a financial planner, accountant, and/or legal counsel for advice specific to your situation. Reproduction of this material is prohibited without written permission from Patrick Dinan, and all rights are reserved.